474
FXUS63 KOAX 131725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A FEW HAVING STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
MOISTURE RETURN ON A LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON A SLOWLY SAGGING
COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST
TO HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A DAMAGING MICROBURST CAN'T
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ALSO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY
WILL TRANSPIRE. SOME OF THIS EVENING'S GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ACCELERATING IT'S ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. OTHER GUIDANCE,
HAS A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWING THE FRONT'S ADVANCE. IN EITHER EVENT, A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SINK
TOWARDS OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS TIME, MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE IF A DISCRETE CELL CAN REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT IF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION LINGERS, THIS COULD INHIBIT LATER CONVECTION, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS.
BY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER WEATHER SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. AFTER
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE
AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN STORY OF THE AVIATION FORECAST WITH A
WIND SHIFT INCOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST SERVING AS AN IGNITION
POINT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AT KOFK AS EARLY AS
18Z, WHILE KLNK AND KOMA HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL 22/23 RESPECTIVELY.
THESES STORMS WILL BE SMALLER IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE MORNING
ONES, AND COULD LINGER IN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE SWEEPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE WIND SHIFT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL PICK UP SPEED AND GUST TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH, WITH QUIETER WINDS INCOMING OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS VISIBILITY DROPS DURING ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. ONCE THOSE CHANCES ARE OUT OF THE WAY, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CARRY US INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH QUIET WEATHER TAKING OVER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page