884
FXUS63 KOAX 131841
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
141 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND ONE INCH HAIL.
- A SMALL AREA OF NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER COULD SEE
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 3-8 PM, WHERE LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TODAY:
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PACES A THE COMBINATION OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF KANSAS AND
MISSOURI, CONNECTING ON ONE SIDE TO THE MCS FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WHILE THE OTHER LINKS UP WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THOUGH THE SURFACE LOCALLY IS A MESOSCALE MESS, THE MORE
SALIENT FEATURES TO WATCH WILL BE AN ELEVATED FRONT AT 850 MB, AND
THE NORTHWARD-SURGING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE FORMER WILL WORK TO CAUSE A
SCATTERED LINE OF WEAKER ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG IT, WHILE THE
LATTER POSSESSES A HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS THAT WILL BE HELD WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE/KS BORDER.
GOING RIGHT TO THE HIGHER-END POTENTIAL, THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ATTEMPT TO SWING INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THESE STORMS AS
SURFACE-BASED, ALLOWING ANY STORM THAT FORMS TO TAP INTO 45+ KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CURVATURE IN THE
LOWER HODOGRAPH, WITH THE SHAPE OF IT TAKING A LARGE HAIL, RIGHT-
MOVING SUPERCELLULAR LOOK TO IT (SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL). IMPRESSIVE HAIL ANALOGS COME UP WITH THOSE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ONES THAT ARE ABLE TO STAY DISCRETE AND
REACH HAIL SIZES OF 2.5" OR MORE. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY
IS HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER. AS OF NOW, AREAS
OF JEFFERSON AND GAGE COUNTIES NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER ARE 12
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE HRRR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOR THE
AREA AT 20/21Z. IF THOSE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE NOT REALIZED, THE
HAIL THREAT WOULD CONTINUE, THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD DECREASE,
AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE -- ESPECIALLY AS ANY
DISCRETE STORMS GROW UPSCALE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THOSE STORMS WOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 4-6 PM, MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND CLEARING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 8 PM, AFFECTING
AREAS SOUTH OF THE LANCASTER/GAGE COUNTY LINE AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING TO THE NORTH, WEAK STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BUBBLING ALONG
THE SLUGGISH 850 MB FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION
OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THAT
NORTHERLY JET WILL CONTINUE A SWATH OF SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS BEGIN GIVING THIS FEATURE
A KICK IN THE PANTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO 20Z THIS AFTERNOON,
WHERE IT BEGINS IS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ELEVATED, HAVING ACCESS TO DECENT INSTABILITY
BUT LESS EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS
TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF QUARTER OR A
"SPLAT" WIND GUST AS AN UPDRAFT COLLAPSES. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DEAL WITH THESE STORMS, BEING A NUISANCE FOR OUTDOOR
PLANS THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO 10 PM. ONCE THEY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST, RAIN CHANCES
WILL END AND WE'LL GO INTO A QUIET NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 70S AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SEE LONGWAVE TROUGHING SINK
DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUTTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AIR LIMITING
ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES FOR RAIN. A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH ON MONDAY, MAINLY LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS OUR
ENSEMBLE OF GUIDANCE ISN'T THAT EXCITED ABOUT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN.
POPS IN THE ENSEMBLE MAX OUT AOUND 5 TO 10 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY TREND BACK UPWARD TOWARD MIDWEEK AS THE COOLER AIR
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WE SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL WAVE. WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, POTENTIALLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RIGHT NOW APPEAR
TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, IN AREAS WITH MORE RESIDENCE TIME
IN THE WARM-SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WE SEE MILDER
TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN ON THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTLES BACK OVER OUR AREA. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE
PATTERN BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE, WITH VARIOUS WAVES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN LEADING TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES APPEAR TO SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SYSTEM NEXT SATURDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN STORY OF THE AVIATION FORECAST WITH A
WIND SHIFT INCOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST SERVING AS AN IGNITION
POINT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AT KOFK AS EARLY AS
18Z, WHILE KLNK AND KOMA HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL 22/23 RESPECTIVELY.
THESES STORMS WILL BE SMALLER IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE MORNING
ONES, AND COULD LINGER IN ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE SWEEPING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE WIND SHIFT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL PICK UP SPEED AND GUST TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH, WITH QUIETER WINDS INCOMING OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS VISIBILITY DROPS DURING ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. ONCE THOSE CHANCES ARE OUT OF THE WAY, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CARRY US INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH QUIET WEATHER TAKING OVER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN/MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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