773
FXUS63 KOAX 142308
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 ARE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY, WITH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE AFTER 10 PM.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA.
- WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HOT, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES INCREASINGLY DEPRESSED
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN HIGH AND GREAT PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND THE INCREASING EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE BEING FELT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ONLY CRITICISM BEING SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS AT 20-
30 MPH, WHILE TEMPERATURES SIT THE THE OTHERWISE COMFY CONFINES OF
THE LOWER 70S. WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT, AND RESULT IN
LOWS THAT MAY BEAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE, AS OUR RECENT WARM STREAK
HAS DULLED THE EFFECTS OF BIAS CORRECTION. WE'VE GOT OUR LOWS
HITTING THE UPPER 40S TO JUST OVER 50. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TAKE
HOLD OF THE AREA TOMORROW, GIVING US A BIT OF A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA DOWNSLOPE FLOW, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 10 PM. WE'RE CARRYING SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THEY
PASS (AROUND 15-20%), BUT BOTH THE AMOUNTS AND THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SMALL FOR ANY EFFECT TO BE FELT FROM THEM.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WITH THE MAIN JET STREAK POINTED FROM BC/ALBERT INTO IOWA, CARRYING
A SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX THROUGH IT INTO THE AREA. BEFORE ANY RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE, WE'RE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES GLANCE THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN IOWA.
AS FAR AS ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER GOES, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO
WATCH -- CARRYING TEMPERATURES THAT SOAR INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S, VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND SOME EARLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A PAIR OF LOCAL SURFACE LOWS WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, SCOURING OUT MOISTURE BEHIND THEM WHILE
ORGANIZING SEVERE INGREDIENTS TO THEIR SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THEIR PASSAGE LIMITS THE THREAT RISK AREA TO BE
HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL
WOULD MEAN QUICKLY EXPANDING SEVERE ODDS THAT WOULD CARRY ALL
HAZARDS BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES STREAM IN BEHIND OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEES BUILDING TROUGHING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA, WITH THE RETURN OF A SUMMERTIME FEEL TO THE
FORECAST. A COOLER THURSDAY TURNS INTO A WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LATE-IN-THE-DAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING VIA LOW-LEVEL
JET NOSING OR FROM THE WEST AFTER INITIATING OFF OF BOUNDARIES UP
THE HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8000-9000 FT
AGL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page