125
FXUS63 KOAX 151711
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 ARE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
AFTER 10 PM.
- OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA.
- WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HOT, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DESPITE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPINNING THROUGH ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. IT WAS LEADING
TO SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NE
AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND MANY MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND. WE'LL STAY UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
HELPING TO WARM US UP A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY
LIMITED, SO THEY SHOULDN'T BE TOO IMPACTFUL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A QUIET DAY ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BY 7-8 AM.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS A
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT USHERING IN WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT
AND DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
LIMITING WARM SECTOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. IN FACT, MOST GUIDANCE
FAVORS STORM DEVELOPMENT STAYING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COMPLETELY.
STILL, INGREDIENTS WILL BE THERE FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
SO IF PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SLOWS AT ALL, OUR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL RAMP UP QUITE A BIT. IN ADDITION, THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
NORTHEAST NE, WHERE THEY HAVE MISSED OUT ON MUCH OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL. EPS MEAN WIND GUSTS ARE AROUND 40 MPH WHILE RH IS
PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE, PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S, BUT OF COURSE THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WE TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS THAT NORTHEAST
NE/WEST-CENTRAL IA COULD BE CLIPPED BY SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/LIGHT RAIN, BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED, IF
IT HAPPENS AT ALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND SHOULD WARM
US BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE'LL ALSO SEE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN CO AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO
THE AREA, WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER,
STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING AND TRACK OF VARIOUS
FEATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS STARTING TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR KOFK, WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ANTICIPATED AT KOMA/KLNK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SLOW TONIGHT, SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN SPEED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW AS A WIND SHIFT PASSES THROUGH. SHORT-
TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
(20%) PASS THROUGH WITH OR SHORTLY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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