192
FXUS63 KOAX 151901
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
201 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
AFTER 10 PM.
- OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA.
- WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HOT, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS IS EVIDENT
IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO HOLD
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE RULES OVER
OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY WEATHER MAKING FOR A
BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, WITH ONLY A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS INBOUND FOR
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, THAT WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THANKS TO MEASLY INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AS IT PASSES.
TOMORROW WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT NEAR THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL TRY TO SPUR ON SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT CHANCES FOR ANY MEANINGFUL,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAIN LOW.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN ON A FEW FRONTS: THE HEAT,
STORM CHANCES, AND POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE THE
PEAK OF HEAT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH THE EDGE OF IT BEING
TAKEN OFF BY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT THAT HELPS SCOUR OUT
MOISTURE AND INCREASE WINDS LOCALLY. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GUST TO 35-45 MPH, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BEING LOW ENOUGH TO
DRIVE VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT PASSING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEAST, AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT
TO LINGER VERY LONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT SLIPS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS THAT DO
FROM WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE, MUTING THE UPWARDS POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDS WHILE STILL KEEPING EVERYTHING ON THE BOARD BEFORE
THEY MOVE OUT.
WINDS WILL TAKE A BIT TO CALM DOWN BUT ONCE THEY DO, A BEAUTIFUL DAY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 DEGREES WILL CARRY US INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS DO TREND UPWARDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH A MORE
SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST -- INCLUDING INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS PLOWING EASTWARD FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS STARTING TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS NEAR KOFK, WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ANTICIPATED AT KOMA/KLNK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SLOW TONIGHT, SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE INCREASING IN SPEED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW AS A WIND SHIFT PASSES THROUGH. SHORT-
TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
(20%) PASS THROUGH WITH OR SHORTLY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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