506
FXUS63 KOAX 160445
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WITH
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS
FEATURE. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL
BRING A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES START IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WEATHER WILL BE HARD TO BEAT FOR MID-JUNE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WORKING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, SO LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO BE FASTER IN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS BECOME
MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT, A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN A HOT, DRY, AND WINDY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 35-45
MPH BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 25%. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
ISN'T A PROBLEM WITH GREEN VEGETATION IN PLACE, BUT LINGERING
DRY FUELS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SUPPORT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE WIND AND FIRE THREAT REMAINS ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE, BUT WIND ADVISORIES OR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY. BEYOND THURSDAY, A TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK. AS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ARE LIKELY TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE PEAK SEVERE WEATHER SEASON
IS COMING TO AN END, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION,
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE VICINITY OF EACH TAF
SITE. IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS TO IMPACT A TERMINAL, IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF AND MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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