661
FXUS63 KOAX 161627
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WITH
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS
FEATURE. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL
BRING A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES START IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS WEATHER WILL BE HARD TO BEAT FOR MID-JUNE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WORKING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, SO LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO BE FASTER IN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS BECOME
MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT, A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN A HOT, DRY, AND WINDY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 35-45
MPH BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 25%. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
ISN'T A PROBLEM WITH GREEN VEGETATION IN PLACE, BUT LINGERING
DRY FUELS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SUPPORT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE WIND AND FIRE THREAT REMAINS ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE, BUT WIND ADVISORIES OR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY. BEYOND THURSDAY, A TRANSITION
TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK. AS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ARE LIKELY TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE PEAK SEVERE WEATHER SEASON
IS COMING TO AN END, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. CALM NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 15-25 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES IN AT FL015-020. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WILL
MOVE INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN
GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-35 KTS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS FURTHER INCREASE
TO 40-45 KTS AT KOFK JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ068-
089>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...WOOD
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