468
FXUS63 KOAX 161718
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MORNING SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
MIDDAY. WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 40-50 MPH, WIND A WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, PLACING THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN A
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, BRINGING CALM AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LIGHT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ALONG AS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT, WITH POPS AROUND 15-30%. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN
FAIRLY LIMITED, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35-40 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT'S ARRIVAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND MIXES INTO A STRONG (50-
60 KT) LLJ. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA FROM 7 AM
THROUGH 11 AM. A BRIEF DAMPENING IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING A QUICK
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING GUSTS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE. A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS CONSIDERED FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BUT WAS
ULTIMATELY LEANED AGAINST AFTER COLLABORATING WITH FUEL
PARTNERS IN THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL USHER IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CAA, DROPPING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ALONG A STALLED
SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE (POPS
PEAKING AT 15%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL THEN SUPPORT CALM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ON FRIDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTENS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA IN A 15%
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY, SUPPORTED BY GEFS AND EPS BASED MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE ALSO DISPLAYING A 10-15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR AS
DETAILS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 80S, WITH POPS PEAKING AROUND 70-90% SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S, ALONG WITH PERIODIC 20-30% POPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY SOMEWHAT ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRACKING BY DAILY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. CALM NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 15-25 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES IN AT FL015-020. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WILL
MOVE INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF LULL IN
GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-35 KTS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS FURTHER INCREASE
TO 40-45 KTS AT KOFK JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ068-
089>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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