138
FXUS63 KOAX 170439
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MORNING SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH 40-50 MPH, WITH A WIND ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DAKOTAS
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS, A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET BRINGS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THIS REGION. ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA. THAT SAID, A GLANCING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T
BE RULED OUT FOR OUR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
AND PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL ACT TO QUICKLY PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS FILL IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS LIKELY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON TOP OF
THIS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-25% RANGE OVERSPREADS
MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS GREEN, A FEW
DRIER AREAS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CLOSEST
TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED
AS A RESULT, BUT BORDERLINE FUEL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DESPITE THE FRONT.
THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE A WELCOMED RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ENJOY THIS WHILE YOU CAN AS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE
HORIZON BEYOND THIS POINT. AS THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE ORIENTATION, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY MAY SEE MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY, AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BEYOND SATURDAY, CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN
CHANCES AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER
SUNSET AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, LLWS
IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE 50 KTS AT 1500 AND
2000 FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST BRIEFLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT
TIMING HAS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING AT OFK
AT 13Z, LNK AT 15Z, AND OMA AT 16Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ068-
089>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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