774
FXUS63 KOAX 171719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
PM.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
FUEL REMAIN DRY.
- A COOLER, QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEAL A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
PUSHED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALONG
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A PERIOD OF CAA, HIGHS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS AS A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH DEEPER MIXING INTO A
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE WILL BRING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE 1000-HOUR FUELS
HAVE YET TO GREEN UP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, THOUGH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. POPS ONLY PEAK AROUND 15-20%.
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FILTER A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, MAKING FOR A
PLEASANT MID-JUNE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
A TRANSIENT CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BRIEF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING QUIET
CONDITIONS AND HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING 15-30% POPS TO
THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE
WILL HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO/WYOMING BEFORE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND A MODESTLY
DESTABILIZED WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WILL BE A DAY TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE DEPICTS STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WHEN POPS PEAK AROUND 80-95%. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF NEBRASKA IN A 15% SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR
SATURDAY.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S, WITH PERIODIC 15-30% POPS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACK NEAR
THE AREA. THE COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND AS THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA FOR
TEMPERATURES LEANING BELOW NORMAL (40-50% PROBABILITY) AND
PRECIPITATION TOTALS LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-40% PROBABILITY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A COLD FRONT PUSHED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT 30-37 KTS FROM
17/19-23Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM AFTER 18/00Z, DIPPING BACK
UNDER 12 KTS LATER THIS EVENING. MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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