950
FXUS63 KOAX 181621
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOLER, QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME.
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SATURDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
A CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AFTER A HOT, DRY, AND WINDY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY
QUIET OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SPURRED ON BY A FAST-MOVING TROUGH NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, SO
LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY IS LIKELY FOR MOST ON
FRIDAY.
OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. A PRONOUNCED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HELPING TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE. AS
THIS OCCURS, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE AREA
OVER STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE
PUSHING EAST AS AN ORGANIZED LINE OR CLUSTER LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE LIMITED
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE THAT GOES OUT THAT FAR ARE
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES
FORM. THAT SAID, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO.
ON TOP OF TOP OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE A GROWING CONCERN. ABUNDANT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM. IF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES FROM AND IMPACT
THE REGION AS THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS TEND TO INDICATE. A
CORRIDOR OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
MAY DEVELOP. THIS WOULD POSE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF FLASHING
FLOODING. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR SATURDAY.
BEYOND SATURDAY, COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN, AT
LEAST BRIEFLY, FOR SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR FOR NEXT WEEK,
AN OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE. A WEAKENED RIDGE
WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WEATHER SYSTEMS AND RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12-15 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER
12 KTS BY 19/00Z. A FEW CLOUDS MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA AT
FL050-070. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
MAY APPROACH KOFK AFTER 19/13Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
(30% CHANCE) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK
IN COVERAGE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...WOOD
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