907
FXUS63 KOAX 182311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
CONUS, LEAVING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO FILTERING INTO THE AREA,
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CALM AND PLEASANT JUNE DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDING BUILDS
IN AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 20-35%). LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW,
THOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE AND HELPS DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW OVER CO/WY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NE/KS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE REGION, PUSHING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVES INTO THE AREA, SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO EASTERN NE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A BOWING SEGMENT POSSIBLE, THOUGH
ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL CAM GUIDANCE WILL HELP REFINE THE FINER DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH WIDESPREAD POPS PEAKING AT 85-95% SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WILL BRING
PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3-4KM
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
70-90% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND A 30-70%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOCUSED TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. POPS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AND ANY SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH NO
STRONG FORCING EVIDENT AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAINS LOWER. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
PERIODIC 15-30% POPS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH A CUMULUS DECK AROUND
6-7 KFT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS SKIES
CLEAR, BUT WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATELY SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, BUT THESE CHANCES REMAINS LOW
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON AVIATION IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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