469
FXUS63 KOAX 191740
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORCING A SAGGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HOWEVER, IT HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 20-50%. ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BOTH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH MUCAPE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A BETTER CORRIDOR OR MODEST INSTABILITY,
WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG, IS EXPECTED TO PULL INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS,
THOUGH THIS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AND WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND,
THEREFORE, HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER ARRIVES SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVE THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE, HELPING
TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO THAT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A BROKEN ROUND OF WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY, WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WHILE
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, THE EXTEND OF AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER WILL HEAVILY HINGE
ON WHERE THE BETTER TONGUE ON INSTABILITY IS DRAWN, WITH HAS
CONTINUED TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE, THOUGH A SMALL NORTHEAST SHIFT COULD CHANGE THOSE ODDS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD AND CONGEALING INTO A
BROKEN, RATHER MESSY CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AND A LLJ DEVELOPS, NOSING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE
INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE,
GENERALLY AROUND 5.5-6.5 C/KM, AND LATEST CAM GUIDANCE ONLY BRINGS A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WITH MUST OF THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING BELOW 750 J/KG. THAT
SAID, HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG, WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SOME
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE. SO WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN INITIAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RECENT HRRR RUNS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A SIGNAL FOR GUSTY WAKE-LOW WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, SUGGESTING A SNEAKY WIND THREAT THAT COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. BEHIND THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS, A LINE
OF TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. INGREDIENTS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 3.5-4 KM. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. AGAIN, THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, BUT WITH DEEP WARM-CLOUDS, EFFICIENT RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOME AREA WILL SEE TRAINING STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING WHERE THIS AXIS
SETS UP LATITUDINALLY. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS A BROAD AREA OF 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BENEATH
THE HEAVIER TRAINING STORMS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE COLLABORATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
EXPECT REFINEMENTS TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTINUED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH NO STRONG
FORCING EVIDENT AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOWER, ESPECIALLY REGARDING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WORKING BACK TOWARDS THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
PERIODIC 15-30% POPS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS AT KLNK AROUND 19/19-22Z.
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY
FOG CAPABLE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE IN JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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