376
FXUS63 KOAX 201135
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS EVENING, WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LED TO THE BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER. THAT IS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LED TO TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING QUITE
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A GREAT NIGHT TO CRACK YOUR WINDOWS OPEN AND
GET SOME FRESH AIR. WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE
PLATTE RIVER NORTH TO CUMING AND BURT COUNTIES EAST INTO MONONA,
HARRISON, AND SHELBY COUNTIES IN IOWA.
SATURDAY WE SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST, WE SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTH OUT OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING CLOSER TO 00-03Z SATURDAY NIGHT,
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARD
IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAPPING INTO THE MOIST,
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL LEAD TO A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED LAYER NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND POOLING ALONG THE
ELEVATED WARM-FRONT. WITH ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF SHEAR, WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH, BUT CLOSER TO THE KANSAS STATE LINE WE
DO GET A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. IF WE CAN GET ANY CLEARING AT
ALL, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOUTH IS MUCH BETTER WITH 61KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR, AND 0-3KM SRH OF AROUND 300. DON'T THINK THIS WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE HAIL EVENT, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
QUARTERS WITH STRONGER STORMS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL DIFFICULT. INSTEAD, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS.
MEANWHILE, DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY WE'LL
SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF AN MCS DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE EXTENT OF
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. IF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE TRUE,
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THAN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA, KEEPING THE WIND THREAT SOUTH. THE GREATER THREAT
OVERNIGHT WILL BE A SECOND DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING, NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL 8-10AM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WE'RE EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HREF LPMM SHOWS WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, GENERALLY IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. FOR
THIS REASON, WE HAVE A FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA.
REST OF SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS SUNDAY MORNING, WE SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BEING
KEPT SOUTH BY A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. WITH THE
POLAR JET MORE ACTIVE AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN USUAL LATER IN
JUNE, IT'S NO SURPRISE WE'LL HAVE A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLE IN
FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS SATURDAY SYSTEM. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AGAIN
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK
WE SEE THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TRANSITION AS THE RIDGE OVER NW
MEXICO BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
BRING BACK MORE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURE
MORE MILD DESPITE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK.
SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
EXPECT SOME LINGERING FOG AT OMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL DIPS BELOW 1 OR 1/2 SM VISIBILITY THROUGH 14Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCOMING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS, THOUGH AT THE VERY
LEAST EXPECT PRETTY PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. TSRA WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING ANY PERIOD WITH -SHRA AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TSRA, BUT FOR NOW CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT MOST
LIKELY 2-3 HOUR WINDOWS FOR TSRA. ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
IN, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR
AND IFR VISIBILITY WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
SETTLING AT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS OUTSIDE
OF STORMS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ030-042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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