586
FXUS63 KOAX 202311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS THREE TO FIVE INCHES.
- SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THERE WILL BE A PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
FULL WEEK OF SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AIDING IN THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF MU-
CAPE GRADIENT LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. MESO-SCALE MODELS HAVE
BEEN POOR IN HANDLING OVERALL EVOLUTION, WITH PREVIOUS 06Z ARW
CORES BEING THE CLOSEST TO WHAT'S CURRENT GOING ON. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVERTOPPING SOUTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE, AS LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS
SYNC AND INCREASE SURFACE-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BETTER
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH INTO
KANSAS, WITH SOME INTRUSION INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BETTER KINEMATICS
ASSOCIATED WITH BEST SB- AND MU-CAPE LOOK TO OCCUR WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD FROM 23Z-04Z IN
WHICH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MID-
LEVEL SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WEST OF AN
BVN TO BIE LINE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN TWO AREAS. AN AREA OF ALONG WARM-
FRONT AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT TO ABOUT THE
KANSAS- NEBRASKA LINE BY 00Z, THEN AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, H9-H8 FRONTOGENSIS
GENERALLY ALONG AN OLU- OMA-RDK LINE DEVELOPS. WITH SUSTAIN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
BOTH HIGHLIGHT 50-90% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR RAINFALL ABOVE
100-YEAR ARI AT 06Z AND 12Z. THE NAEFS AND ECENS ARE LESS
BULLISH, WITH PROBABILITIES 30-40%. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 80-99% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, AND WITH WARM-RAIN
PROCESSES BECOMING DOMINATE, CANNOT DISCOUNT WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCH RAINS WITH EXTREME SHIFT-OF-TAILS RAINFALL AMOUNTS THREE-
FIVE INCHES.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ONGOING
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID-DAY. WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. SYNOPTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO
REDEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO SYNCING OF CYCLONIC CONVEYOR OF
UPSTREAM H5 DISTURBANCE AND ANTI-CYCLONIC CONVEYOR OF DOWNSTREAM
DISTURBANCE. LEFT LOW POP GENERATED BY NBM. OTHERWISE, FORECAST
LOOKS "DRY" THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
DIVES OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO MOVE IN AROUND
1500FT FROM THE WEST WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY FROM
ONEILL TO JUST NORTHWEST OF BEATRICE. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KOFK AND KLNK (80% CHANCE),
AND POSSIBLE AT KOMA (40% CHANCE). HAVE DONE OUR BEST WITH
TIMING OF STORMS IN THE TAFS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
IN- CLOUD LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGHOUT THE RAIN SHIELD EAST OF
THE MAIN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
AROUND 12-13Z THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
OCCASIONAL STORM-GENERATED GUSTS THAT COME OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NEZ030-042-043-050-051-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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