486
FXUS63 KOAX 212342
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (30-60%) OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (5-14%) EXISTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
QUASI-ZONAL SHORT-WAVE FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF A SEMI-PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. AN ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL AT TIMES BE AMPLIFIED BY SUB-
TROPICAL JET TO PRODUCE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL KEEP
OVERALL HEIGHTS LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER THAN NORMAL (5-10 DEGREES F) TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL REMAIN SEMI-PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A STREAM OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW. WHERE CLOUDS SCATTERED TONIGHT, UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE
FOG, BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF WYOMING WILL HELP TO ACTIVATE STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
WHICH WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID- EVENING.
THE CAMS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE STORMS
EASTWARD THUS USED A HREF/NBM BLEND FOR POPS. CURRENTLY THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
MONDAY...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OVERALL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND
MOVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. COUPLED WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES 45-55KTS, BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
RETURN, WITH SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE
AREA. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS, WPC ALSO IS HIGHLIGHTING A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT THEN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE
SHORTWAVE FLOW AGAIN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EC ENS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS,
WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT LOW CHANCE (15-30%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL, MOIST AND WARM FLOW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WE'VE SEEING CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO 3500-4000FT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS AND BECOME BROKEN IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST OR ENE. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO KOFK
AROUND 00Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL (30%) FOR ANOTHER ROUND LATER
AROUND 06-08Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LIGHTNING WITH ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK INTO KOFK
AROUND 05-07Z (80% CHANCE), WHILE ONLY A 40% CHANCE AT KLNK AND
10% CHANCE AT KOMA. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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