348
FXUS63 KOAX 222311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE (12-14%) FOR SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (60-80%)
AND AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS (30-50%).
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING IF STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY (15-30%). A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AT H5 FEATURES TWO PROMINENT DISTURBANCES
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REMAINS INFLUENCED BY PRIMARILY WEAK ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT
THE SFC, A CHANNEL OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS OF LOW TO MID 70S UNDER SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SOME WEAK H8
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CHANCES DON'T LOOK
GREAT THOUGH AT AROUND 12-14%, SO LARGELY EXPECTING THE DRY WEATHER
TO PREVAIL. FOR TONIGHT, LOWS COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE H5 LOW OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. H8 WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BROAD LIFT HELPING GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. CAMS DEPICT
THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING SOUTHEAST, SOMEWHAT WEAKENING AS IT
ENTERS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPEARS ABUNDANT,
BUT THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST
OF OAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ROOTED
ALOFT ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN EDGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IF A STORM WERE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN, THE MAIN THREAT IT'D HAVE
WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IS STILL SEEN IN
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. POPS REMAIN AT 60 TO 80%, OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, PEAKING AROUND 14Z.
BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
INSTABILITY PLUME OF 500 TO 1,000 J/KG INCHING TOWARD OUR FAR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE STRONG SHEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE. WHILE THIS SCENARIO SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. SOME GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR REINTENSIFIES THE
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY MORPHING INTO AN MCS (WITH THE THREAT BECOMING PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WINDS) THAT EXITS OUR AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, OTHER CAMS LIKE THE HIRES ARW AND NSSL WRF SUGGEST
CONVECTION IGNITING ALONG THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS
AND TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE LIKE THE NAM 4KM NEST AND
FV3 SEEM TO SHOW JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IN OTHER WORDS, CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW. AT THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE
CATEGORICAL MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. POPS REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50% FOR THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
WARM TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT H5 HELPING BRING CONTINUED WEAK WAVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THOSE DAYS. NBM EXTENDED HAS POPS OF 15 TO 30%
AREAWIDE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPANDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY,
AND LOW 90S FOR SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES WITH
THE FEATURE TRACKING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, NBM POPS REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASE CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS, PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS
ARRIVE AT KOFK AROUND 13-14Z, KOMA AROUND 17-18Z, AND KLNK
AROUND 18-19Z. SHOWERS CLEAR 1-2 HOURS AFTER ARRIVAL. CIGS WITH
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND 7000-9000FT. THERE WILL BE ONLY AROUND A
20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SO HAVE LEFT AS -SHRA IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MCCOY
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