299
FXUS63 KOAX 231737
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING (60-80%), WITH
ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING (30-60%). MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY (15-30%).
- SEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE GENERATING STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
COLORADO APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE AREN'T THE STORMS TO
WATCH, THOUGH AS THEY WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WELL AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. WE'RE WATCHING STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHEAST MT WHICH ARE ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WE HAVE BROAD, WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH MERGING POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THE SYSTEM BRINGING OUR FRONT THROUGH
IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH DAKOTA
AND MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH REGARDS TO THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW, DURING THE MORNING
WE'LL SEE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 9AM CONTINUING
SOUTHEAST INTO OMAHA AND LINCOLN AROUND NOON. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR US TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT IF WE DO MAINLY NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD SEE A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVER THE EVENING HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS WELL
AS WEAKER FORCING FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW WITH
VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. REALLY
THE ONLY THING THIS SYSTEM HAS FOR IT IS 35KT OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST NE WHICH COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE ANYTHING
STRONGER THAT GOES UP ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS
OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAVE A REMNANT MOISTURE BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WITH THIS
IN PLACE, A WELL-TIMED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING STORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING STORM CHANCES BACK INTO
OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL, SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THIS MCS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING, KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE SEE A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSH INTO THE PACNW, AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION OUT OF
THE GULF CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOW 90S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. WHILE STORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A 60-70KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME POWERFUL STORMS FOR OUR NORTHERN
NEIGHBORS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LLJ MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY A PERIOD TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT KLNK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TS IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THE FOREST IS TRENDING DRIER. A SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4KFT. LEFT MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE
TAF AT THIS POINT, BUT WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BROKEN
CEILING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING - ESPECIALLY
AT KOFK. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
COULD BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS WINDS THAT
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CLF
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