656
FXUS63 KOAX 240242
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.
- THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES EARLY IN
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS (40-70%)
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
HEAT INDEX LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES STARTING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE
1000-1500J/KG OF SBCAPE, STORMS ARE STRUGGLING POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONFLUENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
STREAK INHIBITING WEAK FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. COULD ALSO
BE MORE NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FROM 850-700MB WHICH WEAK FORCING IS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THROUGH. WHATEVER THE CASE, WITH THE FRONT
WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES ARE
DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT WITH LITTLE-TO-NO RAIN EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
LOOKING AT THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WE HAVE WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ONLY SLIGHTLY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
FLOW STAYS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN, WE WATCH CLOSELY FOR SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE'LL BE
WATCHING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THESE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, WE
STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE STEERING
FLOW LEADING TO MORE WEST-EAST STORM MOVEMENT, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
TENDED TO DEVELOP THIS NEXT MCS TO OUR SOUTH, MAINLY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW HELPS
TO BUCKLE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE ONLY GROWS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, WE'LL SEE
INCREASED WARM-AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO STARKLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AND LOW-TO-MID 90S ON SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL BECOME A CONCERN TOO, WITH HEAT INDICES GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. THE
HOT, HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE
RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THOUGH PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT UP-IN-THE-AIR DUE TO THIS BEING
FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK IS JUST LOOKING DARN HOT WITH THIS INITIAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDING UP TO OUR WEST LATER IN THE WEEK. WHILE WE COULD STILL
SEE PERIODIC OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPMENT HELP TO BRING CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL, WEATHER DURING THE DAY IS LOOKING TO STAY HOT AND
HUMID.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG IT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KOFK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, DOWN TO AROUND 30% AT KOMA AND 15% AT KLNK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THESE TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS STAY OUT
OF THE NORTH INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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