284
FXUS63 KOAX 241856
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
156 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 92.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
- EXPECT VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S EACH DAY AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACH 105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING/NORTHERN COLORADO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 92 AS THE
SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DCAPE
VALUES OF 800-1200 J/KG ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM THE OMAHA METRO TO YORK. WOULDN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LINCOLN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THURSDAY BRINGS A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER, SHIFTING US INTO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN AS TEMPERATURES RISE MAINLY INTO THE 70S, WITH A FEW ISOLATED
80S POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WE MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE PACNW. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE LAST COOL-ISH
DAY FOR AWHILE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FORM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ASHORE OVER THE
WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE IT
WILL EVENTUALLY COME ASHORE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES, AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST
AND PUTTING THE GREAT PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SUNDAY AND BEYOND, FORECASTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR MANY AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 96-105. SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS OVER US THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY GIVE US
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER 00Z, BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z; HOWEVER,
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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