365
FXUS63 KOAX 252319
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 110
DEGREES.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODIC EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEAL
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 15-30%
RANGE. LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE < 250 J/KG), SHOULD KEEP THUNDER
POTENTIAL LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ONLY PEAKING AT A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY GRAZE SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG A DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AROUND 15%, AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FRONT RANGE,
FORCING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S AS A
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA, WHERE
POPS PEAK AROUND 15-30%.
THE BRUNT OF THE HEAT STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
STRONG MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOME FOCUSED INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WHILE USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF 105 OR 110 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
VALUES.
BY MONDAY, A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD ACT TO DAMPED THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA. FROM MONDAY ONWARD, NIGHTLY POPS OF 20-
40% REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD, THOUGH THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN LOW AT THIS RANGE.
MOST GEFS, EPS/EPS-AIFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A QPF SIGNAL SOMEWHERE
IN OR NEAR THE AREA EACH NIGHT. EPS- AND GEFS-BASED MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE A 5-15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NOCTURNAL MCS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTS RICH MOISTURES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
TEMPERATURES ONLY TAKE A MODEST STEP DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S, KEEPING DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-105 DEGREE
RANGE. ANY ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD LOCALLY TEMPER THE
HEAT THROUGH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW, THOUGH THE BROADER HOT AND
HUMID PATTERN MAY PERSIST UNTIL STRONGER HEIGHTS FALLS ARRIVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LIMITED IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED. OFK MAY BRIEFLY SEE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THESE DISSIPATE. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
OMA AND LNK. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED BY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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