432
FXUS63 KOAX 260511
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 110
DEGREES.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODIC EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS LEADS TO
A QUIET START TO FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHEAST WINDS
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THIS STRENGTHENS LEE TROUGHING,
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER SATURDAY MORNING WITH 60S TO START THE WEEKEND. BY
AFTERNOON, A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR AREA, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW AND MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS QUIET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF SUMMER BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN US BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THE WORST OF THIS HEAT
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL HELP TO PUSH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
NORTH. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING
WITH A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EACH
DAY TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
100S ARE LIKELY FOR MANY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 105 TO 110 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT MAY REQUIRE HEAT
ADVISORIES IN LATER FORECASTS.
THE PATTERN ONLY CHANGES SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER. WITH CHANGES TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED, THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR THE RETURN OF PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT AT LEAST
SOME THREAT OF EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AS
DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE APPEARS POSSIBLE. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT
MORE DETAILS ON THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS MORE MARGINAL.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS UP AROUND 10,000-20,000 FT. WINDS OUT
OF THE NORHT-NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, ON TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE'LL BE WATCHING MVFR
CIGS EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED ON TO THESE CIGS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH AT LEAST KLNK WITH A 80% CHANCE, WHILE ONLY A 40%
CHANCE IT GETS AS FAR NORTH AS KOMA. MVFR CIGS WILL HANG AROUND
UNTIL CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
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