214
FXUS63 KOAX 261103
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
603 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 110
DEGREES.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODIC EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS LEADS TO
A QUIET START TO FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHEAST WINDS
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THIS STRENGTHENS LEE TROUGHING,
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER SATURDAY MORNING WITH 60S TO START THE WEEKEND. BY
AFTERNOON, A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR AREA, BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW AND MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS QUIET. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF SUMMER BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN US BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THE WORST OF THIS HEAT
ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL HELP TO PUSH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
NORTH. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING
WITH A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EACH
DAY TEMPERATURES PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
100S ARE LIKELY FOR MANY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 105 TO 110 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT MAY REQUIRE HEAT
ADVISORIES IN LATER FORECASTS.
THE PATTERN ONLY CHANGES SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER. WITH CHANGES TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED, THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR THE RETURN OF PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT AT LEAST
SOME THREAT OF EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AS
DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE APPEARS POSSIBLE. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT
MORE DETAILS ON THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS MORE MARGINAL.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KOMA. THESE SHOULD BREAK UP
AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THEY HOLD
ALL DAY TODAY. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A 70-80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AROUND 800FT
FROM AROUND 05Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page