941
FXUS63 KOAX 272309
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD BUT HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH AMPLIFYING
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT, WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD
TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERALL, EXPECTED A MILD BUT HUMID DAY,
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSES
INTO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, HOWEVER, THE RISK
DEPENDS ON WHETHER STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AT ALL. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CAPPING, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES, WHICH MAY LIMIT OR PREVENT STORM INITIATION. IF A STORM IS
ABLE TO FORM, ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AROUND 20-40% ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HEAT TO THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD, WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S, AND POTENTIALLY NEARING 80
DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. EVAPOTRANSIPIRATION MAY FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS.
AS A RESULT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM 100 TO
AROUND 112 DEGREES SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FAVORED TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL OFFER LITTLE
RELIEF, REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GIVEN THIS, THE
EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND THE OMAHA METRO, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FARTHER WEST. HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
(BESIDES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, DROPPING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT), THOUGH
AN EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF
OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
BY MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HELP NUDGE THE RIDGE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA AS WE SIT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS, AND
WHETHER FORCING FROM THAT WAVE, COMBINED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ,
CAN OVERCOME LINGERING INHIBITION FROM THE MID- LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES. SPC HAS PLACED NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH A BROADER RISK AREA EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD AS CONFIDENCE IN SHORTWAVE TRACK CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 30-55%.
MEANINGFUL RELIEF FORM THE HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. NIGHTLY STORM CHANCES OF
30-60% CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
FEEDS MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION COULD LOCALLY TEMPER THE
HEAT THROUGH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW, BUT THE BROADER HOT AND
HUMID PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE DISSIPATING WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM
LNK AND OMA, BUT I'VE FORECAST FOR A RETURN TO IFR CIGS AT OFK
FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 11Z OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME,
THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS AT FL020 WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 40-45 KNOTS WHILE SFC SPEEDS SLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-
034-044-045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NEZ052-053.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-
055.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page