700
FXUS63 KOAX 281718
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACHING 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, STRONG MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS IS BRINGING THE FIRST DAY OF EXTREME HEAT TO THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, AND BEHIND IT, SKIES ARE
CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS OF 12 PM, CLIMBING AROUND 20 DEGREES SINCE SUNRISE.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, INCLUDING SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH, USHERS IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA MAY SEE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S, AIDED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE
100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND THE LOWEST TOWARDS THE NORFOLK
AND COLUMBUS, NEBRASKA AREAS. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
UNCOOLED HOMES TO RELEASE THE DAY'S HEAT. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
THE OMAHA METRO, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST.
MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE HIGHEST VALUES
ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER. LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES, POTENTIALLY DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 90S, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOWER. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THIS, THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE THE REMAINING
EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
ON MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL JET STEAK AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT FROM AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD, IT WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STORM
TIMING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE THE LIMITING FACTORS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, STORMS COULD
INITIALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS BEFORE QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE. HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING, WHEN THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IMPROVES SHEAR PROFILES.
THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF AN UPSCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT (DCAPE > 1500 J/KG), ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, BUT SOLUTIONS REMAIN SPLIT ON WHEN INITIATION
TAKES PLACE. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK IN THE 30-60% RANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
BY TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP NUDGE THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, LEAVING THE AREA
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL EASE SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ONCE AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
DAILY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ FEEDS MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. POPS OF 30-55% ARE IN PLACE. GEFS AND EPS-
EPS-AIFS BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 5-
15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. DETAILS WILL LIKELY HINGE ON SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE
TRACKS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. ANY CONVECTION COULD LOCALLY TEMPER
THE HEAT THROUGH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW, BRINGING LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE, BUT THE BROADER HOT
AND HUMID PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT REINVIGORATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SLIDE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
MAY PUSH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES, AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TO
TEMPORARILY DROP SUNDAY HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE SHORTWAVE TRENDS AS IT APPROACHES.
THE OVERALL RIDGE AND HOT PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO BREAK DOWN
ANYTIME SOON, AS CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 14-18 KTS WILL GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS,
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LLWS WILL WORK INTO THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS EVENING AS A 45-55 KT LLJ MOVES IN AROUND FL018. LLWS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-034-044-045-
050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ052-053.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ056-069-079-
080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page