019
FXUS63 KOAX 300311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1011 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, WITH HAIL (UP TO 2") AND A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT ADVISORIES
AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 95-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THIS EVENING, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A
SURFACE LOW SITS IN MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE GREATER THAN 4000
J/KG. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A CAP
HAS HELD IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING SO FAR, WITH A
FEW STORMS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES, BEFORE COLLAPSING NOT LONG AFTER.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LLJ
NOSING INTO THE FRONT, HELPING TO ERODE THE CAPPING IN PLACE AND
ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE. AS OF 10 PM, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAVE POPPED UP TOWARDS THE HASTING/GRAND ISLAND VICINITY,
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2"). CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS CONVECTIVE EVENTUALLY TURNING INTO AN UPSCALE
CLUSTER THAT SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
TURNS INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS EVOLVING CLUSTER,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR 75+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF WIND DRIVEN HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF
THE SYSTEM CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED, THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS
THE LLJ ENHANCED HODOGRAPHS REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT AND BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA, A FEW TRAINING STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR AND LOCALIZING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PULL NORTHEAST AND CLEAR THE AREA BY 6
AM.
REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE WYOMING BIGHORNS. THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW LOW 100S CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY UNPLEASANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
105-111 THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH AINSWORTH, THEDFORD AND MCCOOK (TEMPS=80S,
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS). EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES OF
3500+ J/KG, DCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT. THE
FIRST ROUND WOULD BE THIS EVENING BEGINNING AFTER 6PM. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THIS FIRST WAVE WILL DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION, PICKING UP ON A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BETWEEN
03-05Z AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS COME IN PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID-70S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL FALL INTO THE MID 70S.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-90S. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD: THE GREAT PLAINS
REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE KOFK TAF
SITE BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z. VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO BELOW 2 MILES
IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, BUT
THESE STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND MAY PRODUCE
ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS OF UP TO 100 MPH.
HAVE REMOVED WIND SHEAR FROM THE TAFS AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE FALLING WELL SHY OF TAF CRITERIA, BUT I MENTION IT
ANYWAY AS WINDS AT FL018 WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AT ABOUT 45-50
KNOTS WHILE SFC WINDS ARE AT 10-15 KNOTS DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-034-044-045-
050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ052-053.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ056-069-079-
080-090-091.
UPDATE...WOOD
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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