106
FXUS63 KOAX 300505
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (75+ MPH) REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, WITH HAIL (UP TO 2") AND A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT ADVISORIES
AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 95-105 RANGE ON TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE WYOMING BIGHORNS. THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW LOW 100S CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, MAKING THINGS
FEEL VERY UNPLEASANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
105-111 THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH AINSWORTH, THEDFORD AND MCCOOK (TEMPS=80S,
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS). EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES OF
3500+ J/KG, DCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT. THE
FIRST ROUND WOULD BE THIS EVENING BEGINNING AFTER 6PM. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THIS FIRST WAVE WILL DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION, PICKING UP ON A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BETWEEN
03-05Z AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS COME IN PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID-70S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL FALL INTO THE MID 70S.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-90S. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD: THE GREAT PLAINS
REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. STORMS MAY LINGER AT KOFK BEFORE
GRADUALLY CLEARING BY 30/10Z. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER STORMS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KOMA AND KLNK.
AS STORMS CLEAR OUT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AS A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO FL020. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-12
KTS, UNLESS AUGMENTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-034-044-
045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ052-
053.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ056-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...WOOD
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