987
FXUS63 KOAX 010428
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
- EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THESE SAME DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SPINS ANTI-CYCLONICALLY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRETCHES FROM SOCAL TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA JUST AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW IN MANITOBA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HEAT
INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. ALL HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 75 DEGREES OR LOWER WHICH IS
CONSIDERED THE MARK WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO KEEP A HOME
WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING COOL.
WE'VE WATCHED AN AREA OF CONSISTENT CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALL EVENING LONG. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE ACTION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
FINDS ITS WAY EAST. MOST GUIDANCE KILLS THE KANSAS CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, AND CERTAINLY THE MORE RECENT RUNS ARE LEANING HEAVILY
IN THAT DIRECTION, BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ RAMPING UP, IT'S
HARD TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ENTIRELY.
SEEMINGLY MORE LIKELY IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE MCS CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THIS SIDE OF
THE STATE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE H8 LLJ SHOULD HELP ADD A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE STORM COMPLEX'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
CONCURRING, SUCCESSIVE ITERATIONS OF CAMS HAVE PUSHED THAT
COMPLEX INCREASINGLY FARTHER NORTH SO NOW THAT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO MISS THIS FORECAST AREA TO
THE NORTH FROM 2AM TO 5AM. STILL, OUR STAFFING HAS BEEN BEEFED
UP SHOULD WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY. TORNADOES WOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND 1" HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORMS CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY.
WHO COULD HAVE GUESSED THAT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE HEAT AND
A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS? ALMOST EVERYONE! WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN THOSE NOTCHED ON
TUESDAY, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, IT'LL REMAIN HOT.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE PEAKING IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN FEWER
LOCATIONS... HIGHLIGHTED BY A NEW HEAT ADVISORY FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND THE OMAHA METRO WHERE THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND CAN HAVE IMPACTS ON KEEPING COOL.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL WAIT AGAIN FOR AFTER DARK WHEN THE LLJ
WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE OF NEBRASKA. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
(CATEGORY 1 OF 5). THOSE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF 90S IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND - SURPRISE!
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DARK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS THE CUTOFF
LOW IN MANITOBA BEGINS TO MEANDER EAST FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK'S SECOND HALF WITH
FORECAST HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN.
INDEPENDENCE DAY ARRIVES ON A SATURDAY WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE WEATHER FORECAST HAS OTHER PLANS. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER (40-70%).
THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN BEHIND THAT FRONT AS TEMPS
ON SUNDAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S AND THE 90S RETURN ALREADY
BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK OFFERS LITTLE RELIEF AS IT SUGGESTS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE LOWER 48 + HAWAII ARE LEANING WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR JULY'S FIRST HALF.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
IT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALONG IT AT KOFK. EXPECT TO SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP SPEED AFTER
SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS AT FL019 AT 45 KNOTS FROM 210 DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KOFK. HAVE ADDED TWO HOURS OF VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR NOW FROM 05Z TO 07Z. EXPECT THIS TIMING TO
BE TWEAKED AS THE SYSTEM SHOWS ITSELF LATER THIS EVE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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