873
FXUS63 KOAX 011800
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
100 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND FRIDAY EVENING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WAITS FOR THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION GAVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, CAUSING THEM TO OUTPERFORM MODEL EXPECTATIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS SUPPORT FROM A
PASSING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT TO THE REGION. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. WARM TEMPS
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY, ENHANCED BY LOCAL CORN SWEAT, WILL DRIVE
HEAT INDICIES TOWARDS 100. THANKFULLY, LINGERING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL AT LEAST BRING SOME RELIEF TO
THE AREA, LIKELY PREVENTING US FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY SNAKING BACK ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE,
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AT ONLY 20-30 KTS THROUGHOUT
THE LAYER. A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS HIGHLIGHTED
BY SPC'S MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL MCV MOVING OUT
OF KANSAS, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 8-9 AM.
WHILE OVERALL SHEAR MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
MCV COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN MITIGATE SOME OF THE HEAT EFFECTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 100.
THURSDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE
AREA IN 2 DIFFERENT WAYS. THE FIRST AND MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, IF
YOU BELIEVE THE LATEST CAMS, WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA, THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL, HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL SOLUTION WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG,
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE MCS PASSAGE. SHOULD
THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING, WHEN SHEAR INCREASES, THEY
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
FRIDAY...
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE HEAT TO PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW
AND MID 90S, HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL LIKE 100-105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING ANOTHER HEAT HEADLINE.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE MORE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MORNING STORMS MOVE OUT AND THE RECOVERY OF
THE AIRMASS IN THE REGION.
SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY)...
THE HEAT STAYS ON FOR THE 4TH, AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, WITH HEAT INDICIES TOUCHING THE LOW 100S. SO BE SURE TO STOCK
THOSE COOLERS WITH PLENTY OF WATER, IN ADDITION TO OTHER BEVERAGES.
A POORLY TIMED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS MOTHER NATURE OFFERS HER OWN FIREWORKS
SHOW. WHILE IT'S TOO SOON TO REALLY NAIL DOWN THE TIMING, SO FAR THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN
7PM AND 1 AM SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE I WOULDN'T CANCEL FIREWORKS
PLANS JUST YET, IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY PLANS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HEAT ALSO ISN'T ENDING ANY TIME
SOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S, WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SSW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY WAS STILL TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 00-06Z THIS
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND
12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LLWS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKS UP, BUT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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