145
FXUS63 KOAX 020138
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
838 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP (THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT).
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND FRIDAY EVENING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WAITS FOR THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
A SWATH OF AGITATED CLOUDS SITS ATOP MORE STABLE BILLOW CLOUDS IN
THE LOCAL AREA, SIGNALING THAT THE INVERSION APPARENT AT 825 MB
HAS BEEN DELAYING THE START OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT NOSING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, ALLOWING SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR.
TAKING A LOOK AT HAZARDS, BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE IN
ABUNDANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH DEEPER SHEAR VECTORS BEING
IN-LINE WITH THE INITIATING (THOUGH ELEVATED) BOUNDARY. ONCE STORMS
ARE ABLE TO INITIATE, THEY MAY HAVE SOME TIME TO BE MORE DISCRETE TO
ALLOW FOR HIGHER HAIL POTENTIAL (2" OR MORE). ONCE THOSE STORMS DO
GROW UPSCALE, WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH SPEEDS BEING
HIGHEST WITH ANY NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOWING SEGMENT. ONE
UNKNOWN AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS CONCERNED IS HOW THE
INVERSION WILL AFFECT SURFACE-BASED PARCEL POTENTIAL AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE STORMS. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS SEPARATED BY 2-3 HOURS, WITH
THE SECOND OF THE TWO AFFECTING THE OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS, OWING TO
DECREASED SHEAR AND INCREASING INHIBITION OVERNIGHT. A LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS, WITH ANY CHANCES LIKELY BEING EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOME OF THE BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS (THOUGH WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD) BEING
DEPICTED THROUGH SUNRISE. AS STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS,
THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE GOING FORWARD.
STORM CHANCES TOMORROW ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MURKY AS TIMESCALE
FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS WIDENS, WITH TWO ROUNDS OF MCSS POTENTIALLY
DIVERTING STORM CHANCES TO THE FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS AS
OF THE INITIAL PEEKS OF THE 00Z RUNS GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY TO IOWA, FROM 5 PM ONWARDS WHILE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HIT THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES CREEPING NEAR 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THURSDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL MCV MOVING OUT
OF KANSAS, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 8-9 AM.
WHILE OVERALL SHEAR MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
MCV COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN MITIGATE SOME OF THE HEAT EFFECTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES REMAINING AT OR BELOW 100.
THURSDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE
AREA IN 2 DIFFERENT WAYS. THE FIRST AND MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, IF
YOU BELIEVE THE LATEST CAMS, WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA, THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. THIS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL, HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL SOLUTION WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG,
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE MCS PASSAGE. SHOULD
THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING, WHEN SHEAR INCREASES, THEY
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
FRIDAY...
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE HEAT TO PUSH
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW
AND MID 90S, HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL LIKE 100-105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING ANOTHER HEAT HEADLINE.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE MORE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY MORNING STORMS MOVE OUT AND THE RECOVERY OF
THE AIRMASS IN THE REGION.
SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY)...
THE HEAT STAYS ON FOR THE 4TH, AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, WITH HEAT INDICIES TOUCHING THE LOW 100S. SO BE SURE TO STOCK
THOSE COOLERS WITH PLENTY OF WATER, IN ADDITION TO OTHER BEVERAGES.
A POORLY TIMED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS MOTHER NATURE OFFERS HER OWN FIREWORKS
SHOW. WHILE IT'S TOO SOON TO REALLY NAIL DOWN THE TIMING, SO FAR THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN
7PM AND 1 AM SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE I WOULDN'T CANCEL FIREWORKS
PLANS JUST YET, IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY PLANS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HEAT ALSO ISN'T ENDING ANY TIME
SOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S, WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-JULY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LOW-END VFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS EVENING, WHERE CLOUD BASES OF FL035-045 WAFT ABOVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING AT KOMA/KLNK TO AROUND 25 KTS.
EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH MAIN STORY BEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BY 01Z NEAR KOFK THAT WILL BUILD EASTWARD, CLIPPING
KOMA AROUND 07Z. GUSTS TO 25 ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NOT DIRECTLY HIT BY THE WORST CONDITIONS, WITH VISIBILITIES OF
2 MILES OR LESS AND GUSTS OF 35 KTS OR MORE EXPECTED WITH A
DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONG PORTION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS (30%
CHANCE AT KOFK, 10% CHANCE AT KOMA). ONCE THOSE STORMS CLEAR,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FALL BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH A BANK OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...PETERSEN
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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