633
FXUS63 KOAX 020505
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING, AND
FRIDAY EVENING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WAITS FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
INHIBITION PROVED TO BE TOO STRONG THIS EVENING, WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR AFTER 7 PM
FIZZLING OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WE DO STILL HAVE SOME
MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOW-LEVEL
JET NOSING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA, BUT
EVEN THEN, ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT.
NEWER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THE LACK OF
STORMS, AND NOW WANTS TO CARRY THAT TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, KEEPING THE LID ON THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
THAT IS THERE. OUT BEST CHANCE AT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AS A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS COULD GET
CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING WINDS, BUT
CAPPING WILL ALSO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
STORM CHANCES TOMORROW ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MURKY AS THE
EVENING FORECAST FIZZLES OUT. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
BANKING ON ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING LEADING INTO
THURSDAY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR 06Z CAMS TO JOIN THE HRRR IN
A NEWER LOOK AT THE DAYTIME FORECAST. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR DO DEPICT A MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY (ABOUT 5-8 LOWER DEWPOINTS), MAKING FOR A VERY HARD HILL
TO CLIMB FOR ANY HOPEFUL UPDRAFTS TRYING TO REACH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT HEALTHY MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, MAKING OVERLY WARM TEMPERATURES HARD TO SELL. HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS DO
INCREASE CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE/IA BORDER REGION, MAKING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP, BUT WITH DRIER LOW-LEVELS, THAT MAY PROVE DIFFICULT ONCE
AGAIN.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS ARE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
PATTERN CHANGE SETTLES IN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT HAD LOBBED SHORTWAVES AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OUR WAY WILL
SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO CLOG UP THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE SET TO CONTINUE THE WARMTH IN THE
LOWER 90S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE 95-105
DEGREE RANGE. THOSE APPARENT TEMPERATURES TAKE A 5 DEGREE DIP BASED
ON THE LATEST DATA FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH BOTH DAYS STILL
REPRESENTING THE HIGHER-END HEAT NUMBERS THAT COULD EASILY BE
THWARTED BY POORLY-TIMES SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL NO PROMISES FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY SATURDAY, BUT MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, LIKELY GIVING US BREAKS IN
THE ACTION FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES IF WE DO END UP HAVING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS TRENDS DRIER PRECIPITATION-WISE, AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WARDS AWAY WIDESPREAD
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT HEAT WILL CONTINUE, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCES
RECEDE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LOW-END VFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS EVENING, WHERE CLOUD BASES OF FL035-045 WAFT ABOVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING AT KOMA/KLNK TO AROUND 25 KTS.
EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH MAIN STORY BEING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BY 01Z NEAR KOFK THAT WILL BUILD EASTWARD, CLIPPING
KOMA AROUND 07Z. GUSTS TO 25 ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NOT DIRECTLY HIT BY THE WORST CONDITIONS, WITH VISIBILITIES OF
2 MILES OR LESS AND GUSTS OF 35 KTS OR MORE EXPECTED WITH A
DIRECT HIT FROM A STRONG PORTION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS (30%
CHANCE AT KOFK, 10% CHANCE AT KOMA). ONCE THOSE STORMS CLEAR,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FALL BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH A BANK OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW IN ADDITION
TO GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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