615
FXUS63 KOAX 020519
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING, AND
FRIDAY EVENING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS WAITS FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
INHIBITION PROVED TO BE TOO STRONG THIS EVENING, WITH THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR AFTER 7 PM
FIZZLING OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WE DO STILL HAVE SOME
MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOW-LEVEL
JET NOSING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA, BUT
EVEN THEN, ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT.
NEWER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THE LACK OF
STORMS, AND NOW WANTS TO CARRY THAT TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, KEEPING THE LID ON THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
THAT IS THERE. OUT BEST CHANCE AT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AS A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS COULD GET
CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING WINDS, BUT
CAPPING WILL ALSO LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.
STORM CHANCES TOMORROW ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MURKY AS THE
EVENING FORECAST FIZZLES OUT. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE WAS
BANKING ON ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING LEADING INTO
THURSDAY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR 06Z CAMS TO JOIN THE HRRR IN
A NEWER LOOK AT THE DAYTIME FORECAST. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR DO DEPICT A MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY (ABOUT 5-8 LOWER DEWPOINTS), MAKING FOR A VERY HARD HILL
TO CLIMB FOR ANY HOPEFUL UPDRAFTS TRYING TO REACH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT HEALTHY MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, MAKING OVERLY WARM TEMPERATURES HARD TO SELL. HEADING
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS DO
INCREASE CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE/IA BORDER REGION, MAKING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP, BUT WITH DRIER LOW-LEVELS, THAT MAY PROVE DIFFICULT ONCE
AGAIN.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS ARE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
PATTERN CHANGE SETTLES IN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT HAD LOBBED SHORTWAVES AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OUR WAY WILL
SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO CLOG UP THE
FORECAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE SET TO CONTINUE THE WARMTH IN THE
LOWER 90S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE 95-105
DEGREE RANGE. THOSE APPARENT TEMPERATURES TAKE A 5 DEGREE DIP BASED
ON THE LATEST DATA FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, WITH BOTH DAYS STILL
REPRESENTING THE HIGHER-END HEAT NUMBERS THAT COULD EASILY BE
THWARTED BY POORLY-TIMES SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL NO PROMISES FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY SATURDAY, BUT MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, LIKELY GIVING US BREAKS IN
THE ACTION FOR OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES IF WE DO END UP HAVING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS TRENDS DRIER PRECIPITATION-WISE, AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WARDS AWAY WIDESPREAD
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT HEAT WILL CONTINUE, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCES
RECEDE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10KT AT THE SURFACE WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-45KT AROUND 1800FT, IMPACTING ALL THREE OF
OUR TERMINALS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. WE'LL SEE THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING ENDING THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERN AROUND 14-15Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS
OR STORMS MOVING THROUGH MID-MORNING AS A REMNANT OF STORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. VERY UNCERTAIN
THAT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACH
SO NOT INCLUDING THESE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE CHANCE FOR
EVENING STORMS IS LOWER AS WELL (20%), WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THIS REASON, VERY LITTLE IN THE
TAFS BEYOND LLWS THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE LLWS RETURN THIS
EVENING BUT PROBABLY BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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