975
FXUS63 KOAX 022332
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW STORMS MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. HEAT INDICIES REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A FEW STORMS FINALLY MANAGED TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, DROPPING A FEW SWATHS OF HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CLOUD
COVER AND SPOTTY SHOWERS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE RELATIVELY COOL,
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE **UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S BROUGHT HEAT INDICES INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
A REMNANT MCV ROLLED THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA OUT OF KANSAS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL A LITTLE TOO WORKED OVER
FROM MORNING CONVECTION, A FEW CAMS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK,
BOUNTIFUL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MULTIPLE MODELS HINT AT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS
INITIAL STORM MAY THEN BE FOLLOWED BY AN AMALGAMATION OF CELLS
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO LEAD
TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING IF STORMS END UP TRAINING OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY, BRINGING SUBTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDING IN THE HUMIDITY, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID
90S TO LOW 100S.
WHILE THE FORECAST MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME MUDDLED BY STORM
INTERACTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, MACHINE LEARNING AND CAM
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
EVENING. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BLOSSOM ALONG ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS EVENTUALLY
MELD TOGETHER INTO AN MCS AND SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...
FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN WHETHER OR
NOT WE CAN SHOOT OFF OUR OWN FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY, OR IF WE'LL BE
FORCED TO WATCH MOTHER NATURE'S SHOW. SOME MODELS DEPICT STORMS
SURGING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING, CLEARING THE PATH FOR A HOT BUT DRY 4TH. OTHER SOLUTIONS
DEPICT FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW AS THEY SKIRT
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD LEAVE US
UNDER AN UNSPOILED ATMOSPHERE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL TRENDS APPEAR TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE FIRST OPTION, PUSHING STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE I WOULDN'T CANCEL FIREWORKS PLANS JUST YET, IT WOULD BE
A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY
PLANS.
HYDRATION (WITH WATER) WILL BE KEY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY PARTY GOERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S UP TO 100. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD CREEP
UP A LITTLE HIGHER IF SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING
STORMS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HEAT ALSO ISN'T ENDING ANY TIME
SOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-JULY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN PRESSURE POINT FOR THIS SET OF TAFS,
PROVIDING THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR THE INTERRUPTION OF VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW, STORMS HAVE BEGUN TAKING
SHAPE NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
WITH THOSE AREAS SET TO COMBINE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
AFFECT KOFK FIRST. AS OF NOW, THE TIMING OF 05Z IS A HAIR AHEAD
OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS, BUT ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE (A DELAYED ARRIVAL TO KOFK WOULD BE CLOSER TO
07-08Z). AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, THEY WILL MOVE TOWARDS
KOMA, ARRIVING CLOSER TO 09Z, WHILE KLNK IS ONLY AFFECTED BY
WIND CHANGES AND SOME GUSTINESS PUT OUT BY THE STORMS. IF ANY
STRONG PORTIONS OF THE STORM CLUSTERS HITS KOFK/KOMA, MUCH
STRONGER WINDS (OVER 35 KTS) WOULD BE AMENDED INTO THE
FORECAST. ONCE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT, WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING AFTER 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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