698
FXUS63 KOAX 031052
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A FEW
QUARTER-SIZED HAILSTONES, AND FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA THROUGH 6 AM.
- THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW STORMS MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. HEAT INDICIES REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TONIGHT:
AN ARM OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING, LARGELY ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM AN EARLIER SOUTH DAKOTAN MCS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TRICKY
NAIL DOWN, AND GENERALLY LATE TO THE PART, BUT HAVE DEVELOPED
NEVERTHELESS AND HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING EXTREMELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND BACK-BUILDING. THIS AREA HAS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SWATH LOCATION-WISE, WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN GROWING UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY
OVER THE LAST HOUR, DIMINISHING THE HAIL THREAT AND INCREASING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS. WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
COLLAPSING PORTIONS OF THE CLUSTERS, WITH HIGHER-END WIND (AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO) POSSIBLE WITH ANY GROUPING OF STORMS THAT
ORIENTS ITSELF INTO A BOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN
UNDER-DOING COVERAGE OF STORMS SO FAR, BUT DO PROGRESS A COMPACT
MCS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 6 AM. AS OF NOW, BOTH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAME AREA, FURTHER HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT THROUGH 6 AM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (FOURTH OF JULY):
WITH THE POOR HANDLING OF EVENING CONVECTION BY THE CURRENT SUITE OF
MODELS, TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-102 DEGREE RANGE.
STORMS FOR TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN, WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY LEAVING SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS WILL SERVE AS A GOOD INITIATING BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN
GROW UPSCALE BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE (INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO), WITH
HIGH-END WIND SPEEDS (GREATER THAN 70 MPH) BEING DEPICTED BY SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS OF
THE FORTH OF JULY, WHICH COULD TAKE THE WIND OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE
SAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PARAMETERIZED MODELS
INDICATE THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BE A BOON FOR ANYONE HOPING TO
CELEBRATE OUTDOORS. NEVERTHELESS, MOST IF NOT THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE
DEALING WITH HEAT, SO MESSAGING HYDRATION WILL BE THE KEY FOR ANYONE
SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OUTSIDE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
AFTER EARLY MORNING CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM THE FOURTH IS KICKED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, SEEMINGLY QUIETER WEATHER IS LOOKING TO SET
UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE'LL SEE THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SHIFT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, GIVING US MORE
PREDICTABLE HEAT AS OPPOSED TO THE RECENT HIGHS THAT WERE EASILY
AFFECTED BY DAYTIME CLOUDINESS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK, INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AS THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY MID-WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BUT WEAK FORCING ASCENT AND
INCOMING CONVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY HARD TO NAIL DOWN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE AREA TO BE DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS, BUT THEY ARE
NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. I HAVE ADDED 2 HOURS OF -TSRA AT ALL
THREE SITES TO GIVE A GENERAL TIME WINDOW, BUT EXPECT THIS
CHANGE AS STORMS APPROACH AND CONFIDENCE GROWS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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