198
FXUS63 KOAX 032342
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
A TORNADO OR TWO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW STORMS MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. HEAT INDICIES REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WEAKENING MORNING CONVECTION BROUGHT PATCHY CLOUD COVER THAT WILL,
ONCE AGAIN, HELP MITIGATE SOME OF THE INTENSE HEAT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BY NOON HAD REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S THIS
AFTERNOON.
MACHINE LEARNING AND CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BLOSSOM ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. OVER 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO FUEL DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND 30KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS (75+
MPH) AS THE STORMS EVENTUALLY MELD TOGETHER INTO INTO A BOWING
SEGMENT AND SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL
MODELS CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS ADDITIONAL STORMS REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
PRIMARY LINE. HOWEVER, THESE MAY BE INHIBITED BY HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER BY THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. WHILE STORMS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ON SATURATED
SOILS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING.
BOTTOM LINE, SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND NIGHT COULD
LITERALLY RAIN ON YOUR PARADE. BE SURE TO HAVE SAFETY PLANS IN PLACE
IF YOU ARE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR EVENTS OR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...
THE GOOD NEWS IS FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE OUR SAVING GRACE FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOW 15-30% CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER. THAT BEING SAID, THE
LATEST RUNS OF A FEW CAMS HAVE HINTED AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE
FROM AROUND 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT. LUCKILY, APPEARS ANY STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
THE DOWNSIDE IS WE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HOT AND HUMID, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THANKFULLY NOT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT FOLKS WILL CERTAINLY NEED
TO HYDRATE IF SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD GIVE A BREAK FROM THE OFF AND ON STORM
CHANCES, AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED HEAT ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 03-04Z. HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 06Z (30% CHANCE), SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL START SOUTHEASTERLY AND
GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE, BECOMING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page