724
FXUS63 KOAX 042255
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, AND IF
THEY DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH GOT A FREE
NATURAL FIREWORKS DISPLAY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A HANDFUL OF STRONG
STORMS POPPED-OFF OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
WHILE STORMS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING, REMAINING CLOUD COVER LIBERATED US FROM
EXCESSIVE HEAT. BY NOON, MOST LOCATIONS HAD REACHED THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY WORKED OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
BOOM ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS A
COUPLE THOUSAND J/KG ALREADY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING. HOWEVER, THE FLAGS ON OUR SHEAR VECTORS
REMAIN MODEST AT AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL RIPPLE OUT OF THE PURPLE MOUNTAIN MAJESTIES TO OUR WEST
AND SOAR THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
SPARKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WEAK SHEAR MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT ANYONE WILL BE
HAILED UPON, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE TWILIGHT'S LAST GLEAMING.
WHILE INITIAL GUSTY WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW AMBER WAVES OF
GRAIN, MOST SHOULD REMAIN STEADFAST AS STORMS WEAKEN WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OMAHA TO LINCOLN COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE RAMPARTS OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY RED
GLARING RADAR RETURNS BY MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FRUITED PLAINS SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL BRING BACK STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM GRILLING US ON
FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, SUNSCREEN WILL BE A MUST TO PREVENT
FOLKS FROM GETTING TOO RED DURING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES UNDER THE
SUNNY SKIES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS WHITE HOT AS A
WEEK AGO, WE WILL STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT IF THE HEAT HAS YOU FEELING BLUE,
DON'T WORRY. IN THIS PART OF AMERICA THE WEATHER CHANGES FASTER
THAN YOU CAN SAY "USA".
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
FEW BRIEF NUANCES POSSIBLE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING
(05/06-09Z). THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS WILL BE AT KOFK,
THOUGH STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DECAY BEFORE REACHING
THE TERMINAL. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED AS STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP
TO 50 KTS).
MINOR, PATCHY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY AREAS DIPPING INTO MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. FOG HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. UNLESS IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY
VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...WOOD
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