202
FXUS63 KOAX 050330
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1030 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT, WITH
LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING OR
SHELTERED AREAS. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
- NEAR-AVERAGE JULY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS TONIGHT DEPICT AN AREA
OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE RIDGE, WITH THE MOST
LOCALLY IMPACTFUL WAVE PUSHING FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH, HAS LED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST, WITH
ACTIVITY SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING, THOUGH SHEAR
REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR (BULK SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS). WITH THIS IN
MIND, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
PARTICULARLY WELL AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WIND GUST WITH ANY
DECAYING STORMS THAT PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALMING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AND WIND-PROTECTED AREAS.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A TRANSIENT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. POCKETS OF
SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS, GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED SHEAR (~20 KTS BULK
SHEAR). A FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE SOME SURFACE VORTICITY AND
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERLAP.
MONDAY LOOKS WARM AND MOSTLY CLEAR AS BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED
BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-AVERAGE JULY TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGHS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING POPS OF 35-70%. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY
BE IN PLACE. GEFS AND EPS-EPS-AIFS BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
INDICATE A 5-15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY FOCUSED ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-35% POPS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS RANGE AND
WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
FEW BRIEF NUANCES POSSIBLE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING
(05/06-09Z). THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS WILL BE AT KOFK,
THOUGH STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DECAY BEFORE REACHING
THE TERMINAL. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED AS STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP
TO 50 KTS).
MINOR, PATCHY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY AREAS DIPPING INTO MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. FOG HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. UNLESS IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY
VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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