068
FXUS63 KOAX 051729
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- NEAR-AVERAGE JULY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF EXCESSIVE HEAT NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY...
QUIET WEATHER REMAINED OVER THE REGION TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAJORITY QUICKLY DISSIPATED
WITH THE RISING SUN. SOME HAZE LINGERED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
SMOKE LEFTOVER BY LAST NIGHT'S FIREWORKS. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES HAD
REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR BRINGING A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING COULD HELP IGNITE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK
HEATING. SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE'S AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A WEAK FUNNEL OR TWO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL INCREASING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THANKFULLY, IN THE SMALL CHANCE
THAT ONE DOES FORM (<10%), IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT IT WOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN
INCREASING LLJ WILL HELP DRIVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM CHANCES. ONCE AGAIN THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND, MODELS HINT AT
THE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUPER RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS RIDGE SETS
UP WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOT AND DRY DAYS. WHILE IT'S NOT SET IN
STONE, IT WOULD STILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS FOR MID TO LATE JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CHANCES OF THEM
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES ARE SLIM (AROUND 15% OR LESS). THE BEST
CHANCE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE AROUND KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 23Z-03Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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