854
FXUS63 KOAX 061650
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SETTLED
UNDER A SOUTHWESTERN LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE STEMMING FROM A BROADER
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHILE TROUGHING OVER
THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LEADS TO STORMS OVER
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE BUILDING RIDGE GENERATING SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR
AREA WILL INHIBIT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE SURFACE
HIGH KEEPS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST, FORCING ANY OVERNIGHT
STORM ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
WARM INTO MIDWEEK WITH A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND. EXPECT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
STORMS WILL NOT BE KEPT AT BAY TOO LONG, THOUGH. THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, CREATING MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA AND FORCING THE SURFACE HIGH BACK EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE
LOW-LEVEL JET BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UP
FROM THE GULF. WITH THIS IN PLACE, SHORTWAVES WILL AGAIN GENERATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, STARTING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND REPEATING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WE'LL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS WILL BRING MAX
HEAT INDICES BACK UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORMS WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY, ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. MILDER, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BRING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST KANSAS. AS THIS OCCURS,
A MORE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR AREA PROVIDING FORCING
FOR SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THESE BOTH COMBINE FOR A MILDER DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY GENERALLY ONLY GET UP INTO THE MID 80S.
MILDER WEATHER DOESN'T LAST FOR LONG, THOUGH, AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS LIKELY BRINGS BACK DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES RISING BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES STARTING
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.
LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT COULD PROMOTE CHANCES FOR MORE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER AND CREEKS AND OVER
AGRICULTURAL FIELDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS, WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF FOG LOWERING
VIS BELOW 4SM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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