635
FXUS63 KOAX 081053
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING.
- A STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS A CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE
TO UPPER- LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AN INDICATION OF CHANGES TO COME.
OVERALL, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY LINGER AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA, BUT THESE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WEAKENING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON, HELPING TO ERODE THE CAPPING
INVERSION. CONCURRENTLY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE AND THE COLD FRONT HELP TO
INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. STORMS GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT,
APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING, BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(5-15% CHANCE) OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING
WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL, LIMITED WIND SHEAR
AND HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT MUCH OF THE SEVERE
RISK.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY OFFER THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, CLOUDS KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. IN CONTRAST, COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN BY
AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS CHANCES (10-30%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA FROM ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. THAT
SAID, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIMITS THIS POTENTIAL. FRIDAY
OFFERS MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER AS THURSDAY, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE A TOUCH HIGHER (20-40%).
BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. UPPER 80S RETURN THIS
WEEKEND, BEFORE 90S TO NEAR 100 ARRIVE HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 ARE PROBABLE. THIS HEAT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED
AS ANY FURTHER INCREASES COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE HEAT
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THE DAY UNTIL A BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE NORTH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY WORKING FORM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TIMING IS STILL NEBULOUS AT THIS POINT. THERE IS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY AND EACH SITE MAY GET MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
STORMS, BUT I'VE HIGHLIGHTED THE MOST LIKELY TWO HOURS OF -TSRA
AT ALL THREE SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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