361
FXUS63 KOAX 091727
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES.
- MOST DAYS ARE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING, SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RATHER
LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 20 KTS) HAS KEPT THE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT RATHER STATIONARY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AMPLE
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE > 2500 J/KG) ALONG WITH THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
HAS BROUGHT POCKETS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS
CLUSTER. COLD-POOL DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LINE WILL LEAD TO AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
AS THE COLD-POOL HELPS FORCE THE STORMS INTO MORE OF AN UPSCALE
CLUSTER, ISOLATED POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (POCKETS OF 60
MPH) WILL BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AIDED BY DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN ANOTHER
CONCERN. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.80-2" (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM HAVE BROUGHT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME. POCKETS OF 3- 4.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAVE BEEN REPORTED, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN WESTERN IOWA. CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A FEW SCATTERED STORMS
REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN
THE INCREASING INHIBITION AND DECREASING SHEAR.
STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, CLEARING MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 7 AM. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, THOUGH THE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
TAKE A STEP UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. BY MONDAY, MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES DAILY. THIS HOT PATTERN
WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO SCATTER OUT WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA 12-15Z FRIDAY, BUT
CHANCES CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW 20%, HIGHEST AT OFK AND LNK, SO
DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT OFK TOWARD 03Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CA
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