561
FXUS63 KOAX 092301
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES.
- MOST DAYS ARE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FAIRLY QUIET CLOSE TO HOME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA. FARTHER WEST, STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS CROSSING
THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY
TO LEAD TO SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS ARE GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE PUSH EAST ACROSS NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT MOSTLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW SOLUTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A
LINGERING MCV TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NE WHILE THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE CLIPS FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. THEREFORE,
WOULDN'T COMPLETELY COUNT ON A DRY MORNING (10-30% CHANCE OF
RAIN). IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HINT AT SPOTTY AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT, LIKELY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM ANY MORNING
PRECIP. VERY LITTLE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/GUSTY WINDS, WITH THE 09.12Z HRRR
NOTABLY SHOWING SOME 40-45 MPH GUSTS EMANATING FROM COLLAPSING
STORMS.
BEYOND THOSE STORM CHANCES FRIDAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT A PRETTY
DRY NEXT 7 DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
RISING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY GAINING AROUND 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MID 80S FOR MOST ON
FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY, AND WIDESPREAD 90S BY
TUESDAY. THE "GOOD" NEWS IS THAT TRENDS ARE TOWARD MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND TRUE
GULF MOISTURE/HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE HELD TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE,
DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 60S, THOUGH BEING
JULY IN CORN COUNTRY, IT'LL STILL FEEL HUMID, AS HEAT INDICES
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3,000 TO 5,000 FEET. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. A
15,000 TO 20,000 FT CLOUD DECK WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER
04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT KOFK AND KLNK AFTER 12Z, BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN AT
LESS THAN 20%. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 21Z (20-30% CHANCE) BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP, HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT AT TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 12 KTS DURING THE TAF CYCLE FROM THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING
EAST SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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