698
FXUS63 KOAX 100449
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING (15-30% CHANCE).
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (15-30% CHANCE) OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
- STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER STARTS SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED H5 SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROAD ASCENT FROM
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY HAS LED
TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NORTH
PLATTE TO CAMBRIDGE, NEBRASKA. LATEST CAM SUITE SUGGEST CONVECTION
LARGELY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER 10Z AS IT ENTERS OUR
WESTERN AREAS WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME INSTABILITY OF
500 TO 1,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE LINGERS, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING
FROM 20-25 KTS SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. POPS REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
H5 WAVE LINGERS (15-30%). SOME CAMS HIGHLIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA LIKELY DRIVEN BY BOTH
THE WAVE AND A REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING'S
MCS IN KANSAS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPEARS BEST IN THIS
CORRIDOR AT 30-35 KTS, WHILE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 700-1,000 J/KG.
SO, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA,
SOME POP UP SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
COLLAPSE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR/HIGH CLOUD BASES SEEN FROM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
APPEARS VERY LIMITED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD LARGELY
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW 90S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOWS COOL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS A CHANNEL OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S AND WILL BE THE START TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE 7
DAY FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A 594DAM RIDGE
BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AREAWIDE 90S TUESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AREAS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST UP IN KNOX AND CEDAR
COUNTIES MAY START TO FLIRT WITH THE 100F DEGREE MARK AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES FOR MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
THE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY HELP SUPPRESS ANY RAIN CHANCES TOO SO
EXPECT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3,000 TO 5,000 FEET. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. A
15,000 TO 20,000 FT CLOUD DECK WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER
04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AT KOFK AND KLNK AFTER 12Z, BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN AT
LESS THAN 20%. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 21Z (20-30% CHANCE) BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP, HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT AT TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 12 KTS DURING THE TAF CYCLE FROM THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING
EAST SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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