769
FXUS63 KOAX 102316
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING (15-30% CHANCE). SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
- STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER STARTS SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RAIN CHANCES STAY BELOW 15%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING A GROUPING
OF 2-3 MESO-VORTICIES THROUGH TODAY, LEADING TO OUR CURRENT
SITUATION WITH A BROAD CLOUD SHIELD OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, BUT CAMS DO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAIN LIKELY CLEARS OUR AREA BY 9PM. GOOD
NEWS IS LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW, BUT
STRONGER STORMS COULD PUT DOWN A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60MPH,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN CAPE WILL
BE HIGHEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S.
WE'RE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILDING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BE BRINGING IN AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE DO SEE
A TREND IN THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, PUTTING US BACK IN A
PATTERN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN THEN AND NOW, MUCH CAN
CHANGE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT SEEM TOO EXTREME, HUMIDITY WILL BRING HEAT INDICES UP INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 90S, ONLY INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF HOW MUCH "CORN
SWEAT" WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL HUMIDITY AT THIS TIME, AND
WITH BIAS CORRECTION TOWARD RECENCY AND CLIMATOLOGY, I'D ASSUME
THAT FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR DAY
THREE (MONDAY) AND BEYOND. FOR NOW, NOT MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO DEW POINTS (AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY) IN THE EXTENDED,
BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF HEAT INDICES INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER
TO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. STILL, WE'LL LIKELY STAY UNDER "HEAT
ADVISORY" CRITERIA AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WE COULD GET CLOSER TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD SET US
UP WITH SOME PATCHY FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL RESIDE OVER
WESTERN IOWA, PERHAPS CREEPING INTO KOMA BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG
WILL BURN OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...KG
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