378
FXUS63 KOAX 111850
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
150 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP A FEW MORNINGS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS
BUILDING IN. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND, THEY WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AS THE RIDGE WAS BUILDING IN, WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 1 PM MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S.
AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEK, WE'LL CONTINUE A WARMING
TREND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S BY MONDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTS
MAKING A RUN AT 100, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER WHERE WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT. WHILE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE PRIMARY PLUME OF
70+ DEWPOINTS MOSTLY TO OUR EAST, WE ALL KNOW WHAT CORN CAN DO THIS
TIME OF YEAR, SO THINK WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA MOST DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TOWARD 100. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE
COMING DAYS, BUT IF DEWPOINTS END UP BEING HIGHER, WE MAY SEE A DAY
OR TWO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE BACK WEST WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS WE'LL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND FEW 100S, BUT GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE, NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THAT, AS SOME CLOUDS, OR EVEN PRECIP COULD CLIP THE
AREA. FOR NOW, PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%, BUT WE'LL DEFINITELY
WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS, AS TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE PATCHY FOG ON
SOME MORNINGS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. AT THIS TIME, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STAY UP A BIT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING, SO WOULDN'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE EXTRA MOISTURE FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE FOG IS DEFINITELY THERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CURRENT CLOUDS
GRADUALLY RISING AND DISSIPATING. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT
AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD IF IT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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