685
FXUS63 KOAX 120406
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1106 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
- STRETCH OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FEW MORNINGS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
TONIGHT:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DOMINANT,
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH PARKED SQUARELY ACROSS THE CONUS WHILE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. ZOOMING IN LOCALLY,
WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE THAT HAS ALREADY WORKED TO QUIET WINDS AND
INCREASE COOLING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (SPECIFICALLY FROM GROWING CORN) HAS BEEN
HARD AT WORK TO INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT THAT COULD END WITH A FOGGY SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
SET FOR THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, WHICH ARE 5 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
DEWPOINTS. AREAS THAT CAN PUSH THAT FAR PAST THEIR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEWPOINTS REPRESENT OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE LOCATIONS ALSO SEE LIGHT
WINDS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
ONCE MORNING HITS AND THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED, TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY START THEIR CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
THE RIDGE ONLY BUILDS IN STRENGTH GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT ILLUSTRATES THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES IS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT
CURRENTLY RESIDES UP AND DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE ARCING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THAT WILL ALSO SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD TO
ALSO FORCE TEMPERATURE UPWARDS. WITH A LOT OF THE STEERING
MECHANISMS FOR MODERN FORECASTING RELYING ON BIAS CORRECTION
FROM DATA OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, INCREASING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS NOT CAPTURED IN THAT CORRECTION. WITH
THAT SAID, WE HAD VERY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY, WITH VERY LITTLE OF THAT COMING FROM THE TRADITIONAL
SOURCE REGIONS SUCH AS THE GULF. EVEN STILL, DEWPOINTS EITHER
OVERPERFORMED OR REACHED THE HIGHEST VALUES OF ALL GUIDANCE
TODAY, INCREASING 5+ DEGREES FROM MORNING VALUES AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ALL TO SAY THAT IF OUR CURRENT HANDLE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK IS SOLID, OVER-PERFORMING DEWPOINTS
COULD FURTHER INCREASE HEAT INDICES ABOVE WHAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS.
LOOKING AT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK, WE'LL HAVE TO RELY
ON REMNANTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS, WHETHER IT BE AN MCV THAT IS
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MONTANA OR WYOMING OR AN MCS THAT POWERS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE MORE PREDICTABLE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA -- DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF DAYTIME CLOUDS AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT THAT WE ARE
FORECAST TO SEE. HEAT IS NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND THE FOLKS OF
NEBRASKA AND IOWA KNOW THAT THE HUMIDITY CAN MAKE THINGS DANGEROUS,
WITH HEAT INDICES THIS WEEK REACHING OVER 100 THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AREAS MOST IMPACTED BY HEAT WILL BE THE OMAHA/CB METRO,
LINCOLN, AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE, AND THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE, LIMITING RECOVERY
FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN SPEED FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. DIRECTION-WISE, THEY'LL STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND BOTTOM OUT BELOW 5 KTS, WHICH COULD FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR,
KOMA/KLNK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT FROM 10-12Z. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE IN TERMS OF SPEED WITH LITTLE-TO-NO CLOUD COVER FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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