063
FXUS63 KOAX 121836
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
136 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
- EXPECT OCCASIONAL MORNING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
QUIET AND WARM ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 1 PM WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR US FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING EACH DAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 90S BY TUESDAY WITH MID AND UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WHEN WARMER AIR ALOFT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO CREEP SOUTH.
IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN PLUME OF 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR EAST WITH GULF MOISTURE BEING HELD UP TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY UNDERDOING DEWPOINTS FOR US, WITH CORN
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LIKELY TO PLAY A VERY LARGE ROLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS SUCH, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO STEADILY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR MOST, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED 70 DEGREE READINGS,
ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO EAST. AS IT STANDS, EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO
APPROACH 100 BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SPOTS EXCEEDING THAT NUMBER BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER AIR GETS HERE.
SHOULD DEWPOINTS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST, A FEW SPOTS MAY MAKE A
RUN AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (30-50% CHANCE), BUT WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS TREND TO START THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN ALSO MEANS NEXT TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
BARRING A RANDOM POP-UP STORM OR MAYBE A ROGUE REMNANT MCV SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND POSSIBLY PUSHING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SOME PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK
TO STAY TO OUR NORTH, CLOSER TO THE WAVE, BUT CONSENSUS GIVES US A
15-20% CHANCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OBVIOUSLY STILL A LOT OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN SO WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.
THE LAST THING TO MENTION IS FOG POTENTIAL LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS, AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS, WE COULD SEE CONTINUED PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT GUIDANCE DOES KEEP A BIT OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER US
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST. IN ADDITION, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS ALOFT STAYING UP A BIT, SO ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THAT WE DO GET WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY PATCHY AND FAVORED TO BE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3000-5000 AGL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG CHANCES ALSO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AROUND 10-13Z, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AT TAF
SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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