438
FXUS63 KOAX 151856
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
156 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-25% CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY AND
THURSDAY, EXCEPT ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE AREAWIDE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT INDICES GENERALLY WILL BE 100 TO
105F AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER MAY SEE HEAT
INDICES 105-110.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
TODAY AND THURSDAY...
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS UNEVENTFUL IN THE SHORT RANGE, THOUGH ON
THE WARM SIDE. LOW LEVEL THETA-E INCREASES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA, AND WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CORN-SWEAT
DIABATIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUGGY. AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE RUNNING 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL, BUT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD, AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE
TWO DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES 95-100
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BOTH DAYS. WESTERN IOWA DOESN'T LOOK AS
WARM, BUT WARM ENOUGH WITH READING IN 95 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE.
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGES, WITH HEAT INDICES 106-109
ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, EQUATE TO HIGH HEAT
RISK IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD ON HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE IN BRIEFING PACKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.
A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, HELPS SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES
IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION AND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN
THE 60S. THERE'S ANOTHER GLIMMER OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY
INT WEDNESDAY WITH MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOWING A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE SUPRESSING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN STREAM OF
HIGHER THETA-E RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CUMULUS, WITH BASES ANYWHERE FROM FL035-050, AND COVERAGE FEW TO
SCT. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE COVERAGE BECOME BROKEN, BUT LEFT
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE 16/01-02 UTC.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ON THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LIKELY WILL SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KOMA THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1/4
MILE, BUT THOSE VISIBILITY MIGHT NOT BE REALIZED IN OBSERVATION.
ADDITIONALLY, NBM PLUMES SHOWING VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 MILES AT
KOFK, THOUGH PROBABILTIES LESS THAN 20% FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO LOW, WHICH AFFECT THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, SO THINK THERE'S A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FOG THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...FORTIN
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