334
FXUS63 KOAX 160525
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY.
- HEAT BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100
TO 105 AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WARM AND GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE
WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER, LEAVING FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY CONSTRAINED
TO PATCHY AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS NEAR THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
MAINTAIN MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, PRODUCING HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW ISOLATED, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
(10-15% CHANCE) ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUD DECK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UPWARDS ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND READINGS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES NEAR THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 95 TO
105 DEGREES.
MONDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS FROM 96 TO 102 DEGREES AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEED
DURING THIS STRETCH. ALTHOUGH DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY PEAK
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE HEAT AND
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF, WITH MINIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL PUSH HEATRISK IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S, THOUGH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS TORN ON WHETHER THE COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON TUESDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO RETURN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION, SUPPORTING POPS AROUND 30%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR CALM
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
OFK IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE IMPACTS BETWEEN 10-13Z. ANY FOG
DISSIPATES BY 13-14Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS AROUND FL050.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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