753
FXUS63 KOAX 180335
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1035 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- HEAT BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100
TO 108 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ON MONDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
QUIET AND WARM THIS EVENING UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 PM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, HIGHEST NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER AND IN URBAN AREAS. A
FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW- LYING AREA.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW WINDS ALOFT WILL STAY
UP A BIT, SO IT SHOULD BE PRETTY PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THIS EVENING WAS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN, ACROSS SD, AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST
NE. THIS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH CAMS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR TO WORK WITH ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT GIVEN THE WARM,
HUMID AIRMASS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE HOT AND HUMID
ONCE AGAIN, BUT THINK THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS, BUT STILL
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST WITH SOME HEAT INDICES
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 100S.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL START TO PUSH IN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH NAEFS AND EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS REACH
22-25 C SUNDAY AND 25-28 C RANGE BY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW WE SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES MIXING INTO THOSE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, MEANING TEMPERATURES MAY START TO APPROACH
OR EXCEED 100 ON SUNDAY, AND LIKELY EXCEED IT ON MONDAY (50-80%
CHANCE AT A GIVEN SPOT). ONE THING TO WATCH FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
REMNANT CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OR EVEN SOME SPOTTY PRECIP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NUDGING INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT, TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
NEEDING TO BE BUMPED DOWN. SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO CRASH INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT, BUT STILL SOME
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. FOR NOW, KEEPING THE HEAT ADVISORY
AS-IS FOR NORTHEAST NE ON SUNDAY AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE QUESTION OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. I'D GIVE IT A 50-70% CHANCE THAT WE'LL
NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE.
BEHIND THAT FRONT, WE'LL SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO OUR WEST
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. RIGHT
NOW, OUR HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY (40-60% CHANCE) AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
(30-40% CHANCE). FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH THESE CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
AROUND 6000 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN TOWARD MID-DAY
SATURDAY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SATURDAY OUT OF
SAID CLOUDS WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT OFK AND OMA, BUT
CHANCES ARE UNDER 20%. THERE ARE ONCE AGAIN HINTS AT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT TAF
SITES IS LOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS,
WITH OFK TURNING CLOCKWISE AND SETTLING AT NORTHEASTERLY, AND
OMA AND LNK GOING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
017.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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